How Accurate is a Public Opinion Poll?

From time to time, I will be watching the news and see a public opinion poll mentioned. It will say that this many Americans are in favor of this, and that many Americans are in favor of that. It got me to wondering just exactly how reliable such polls really are.

The first thing I want to know is, how many people are interviewed in a public opinion poll? I have hear varying numbers in answer to this question. I have heard some polls claim that they interviewed a thousand people, some that say they interviewed a hundred, but I have never discovered a universal number of people that polling groups try to reach.

The reason I say this is because I am not sure that asking a hundred and in some cases even a thousand participants about a particular issue is going to provide an accurate representation of the public as a whole. Can I really say with good certainty that because 58 out of 100 people say they like a particular product or service that most people will like it as well?

Another thing about a public opinion poll is that they are often political in nature. Obviously, the United States tends to have certain regions that are more liberal or conservative, and consequently, are more likely to favor the efforts of certain politicians over others.

In my home state of Texas, for instance, there are a larger amount of conservatives in many areas than liberals. Well, let's say that a public opinion poll is taken in a conservative area about the job that Bill Clinton did as a president. Most people would not respond favorably, but even if they interviewed a thousand people from one such area, and he had a low approval rating, can one really say that is indicative of how Americans feel?

Then there are certain news outlets that tend to be more liberal or conservative in nature, and will usually only show polls that suggest their party is in great shape, while the other is hanging on by a thread and on the verge of collapse.

I have always taken a public opinion poll with a grain of salt. I do know that there are very well respected polls out there, such as the Gallup poll, that work harder to reach a broad cross-section of the American public than other polls do.

Don't get me wrong, a public opinion poll can be a very useful tool. It can give our government and businesses an idea of what the public likes and wants. All I am saying is that I don't always trust such polls, because I don't know who they are talking to or how many people they are interviewing.